EYE on the Market
Brexit and its broader economic implications
by MK Khoo, 14 Jun 2017
The UK triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29th March 2017 to leave the EU customs union. What follows will be two years of negotiation on the terms of UK's exit. Possible implications and uncertainties: 1. Currency - it is still unclear as to whether the outcome of Brexit has been fully priced-in for the sterling pound.
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Trade Policies under the Trump Administration
by MK Khoo, 15 Mar 2017
One of the key uncertainties surrounding global trade in 2017 is the stated trade policies of the new US Administration, some highlights are as follow: - US has announced its intention to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a geographical area that covers 40% of global economy - US will seek to re-negotiate the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
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Here Comes the Chinese Consumers
by MK Khoo, 26 Sep 2016
Even as many in the developed economies are complaining about the somewhat crass behaviours of tourists from China at their plush stores, on airplanes and in their formidable art galleries or museums, there is no stopping of the influx of Chinese consumers the world over. The truth is, you don’t want to stop them coming. In the current sluggish markets around the globe, they are probably your much sought after consumer dollars today and for some time henceforth.
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The Rise of the Asian Middle-Class
by MK Khoo, 25 Aug 2016
For the past 25 years, Asian countries have experienced a prolonged period of economic growth. In 1990, Asia's share in world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real US$ purchasing power parity (PPP) terms was 23.2% and this grew to 38.8% by 2014. A major contributor to the growing middle-class was China. According to Pew Research, China's middle-income grew six-fold from 32 million in 2001 to 235 million in 2011. Over the same period, Chinese upper-middle income and high income group grew from 4 million to 67 million or 5% of China's population.
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The Long-term Challenges to Global Economic Growth
by MK Khoo, 19 May 2016
How did the world do in the last half-century? And, where will we go from here? According to a McKinsey report published in 2015, the world economy expanded six-fold and the average per capita income tripled over the last 50 years. However, in the midst of this unprecedented economic boom, global employment growth had been slowing for the last 20 years. Based on McKinsey's forecast, global employee headcount will likely begin to shrink starting from 2024.This development can be attributed partly to population ageing.
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What do we know about 21st Century Banking?
by MK Khoo, 15 Mar 2016
The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was a defining event for the world’s banking industry in the 21st Century. Governments in the US and the UK, fearing widespread systemic risks, decided on taxpayers' bail-out of failing financial institutions. Public outcry on the socialization of bank losses and the moral hazard associated with bail-outs led to regulatory changes in the US (Dodd-Frank Act 2010) and the European Union (Bank Recovery & Resolution Directive of 2015). These regulatory changes hope to provide a process for the orderly resolution of future banking crisis.
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China – where is it heading?
by MK Khoo, 02 Mar 2016
How important is China to global economy? As measured by gross domestic product (GDP), China is the world’s second largest economy after the US. However, when Purchasing Power Parity is used, the Chinese has surpassed the US. Furthermore, in terms of global trade, China is the undisputed leader. As a result, what happens in China in the coming months and years, in all likelihood, will cause a ripple effect across the global economy.
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2016 in Perspective
by MK Khoo, 26 Jan 2016
Welcome to EYE on the Market and welcome to 2016! Personally, it’s a pleasure to start my new year penning down my thoughts and views on how I see the market in general and sharing them with the autumnlife.sg community here. I’d like to kickstart by sharing an overview of the market in 2016, the way I see it. Here it goes.
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